By Bill Oakey, August 25, 2022

On August 16th, President Biden signed the landmark climate and energy bill. It provides $60 billion for clean energy manufacturing, $9 billion for home energy efficiency rebates, and a decade of tax credits for homeowners who participate. But there is one huge problem. Some U.S. utilities are already losing money because of “too much energy efficiency” for their customers. New Mexico’s utility is fighting a brand new solar program, that was approved by their State Legislature.

Three of California’s utilities have routinely raised rates because of declining sales. (See P. 9, Table 1.8). Thankfully, the state may delay a controversial plan to cut back solar credits by up to 80%, and impose a monthly fee on solar customers. This is framed as an income inequality issue. But it’s misguided, because of their devastating, climate-induced wildfires and extreme drought.

Austin Energy is planning both rate increases and solar credit cutbacks to cover declining revenues. They say that they are not selling enough electricity. And yet, reducing the usage of electricity generated from fossil fuels is critically necessary, in order to save the planet. Just this week, we learned some bad news about the Fayette Coal plant, which Austin Energy co-owns with another utility. It has made #10 on the list of the worst-polluting power plants in the country.

But, the energy generation landscape is changing rapidly. Elon Musk builds a line of Powerwall Batteries, and he hopes to become a tough competitor in the retail electricity market. He has also partnered with a builder in Austin to build homes with solar panels and batteries included.

All utilities should have planned for the upward curve of 5%, 10%, 20%, etc. of customers living in highly efficient offices and dwellings. And they should have planned for the growth of customers expecting to sell excess energy back to the utilities. (Although at some future time, utilities may need less of that unused power).

I recently made a proposal to the Austin City Council, to push for big-box retailers to install rooftop solar panels. This followed a revealing CNN investigative report, that outlines the enormous carbon emission reductions that such a plan would yield. Because of Austin Energy’s “not selling enough electricity” problems, my proposal landed with a dull thud. And yet, a Washington Post special series details the horrifying devastation that awaits the Colorado River reservoirs, that supply Arizona, Nevada and California with water.

The Texas Power Grid Is Fraught With Problems

Here in Texas, we live with the fear that our independent electric power grid will fail, throwing us into life-threatening blackouts. If that were to happen, the special interests who control the politically-run ERCOT grid management agency would reap millions of dollars in profits. The system is set up to reward oil and gas producers during weather emergencies. Utilities that purchase fuel to run some of their power plants are forced to pay exorbitant prices in the ERCOT-controlled market. The alleged rationale for this is to incentivize the utilities to build more power plants, to meet growing demand. And yet, State and Federal  reviews, following 2011 Texas blackouts didn’t lead to either fixing the grid or construction of enough power plants. Texans remain at risk, even as our state continues to grow and prosper.

During the 2021 Texas winter storm, ERCOT used a $9,000 per megawatt hour price cap, that was 250-300 times higher than the normal market rate. It generated $50 billion in electricity sales during the single week of the storm. That’s more than the entire annual budgets of Austin, San Antonio, Dallas and Houston, combined!

The special interests who made huge financial gains multiplied their profits through lucrative Wall Street investments. The then-chairman of the Texas Public Utility Commission was caught on tape, promising to protect those profits. Meanwhile, San Antonio’s municipal utility went heavily into debt. Their customers will be paying back over $400 million through a special fee, for the next 25 years. Several electricity retailers were driven into bankruptcy. So, in order to help “fix the grid,” our legislators responded. They lowered the maximum allowable rate for ERCOT sales from $9,000 per megawatt hour to $5.000 – still highly outrageous.

Summer Heatwaves Pose an Even Bigger Risk

In May of last year, the New York Times ran a story with this headline – “A New, Deadly Risk for Cities in Summer: Power Failures During Heat Waves.”  Consider this stunning paragraph from the article:

“Power failures have increased by more than 60 percent since 2015, even as climate change has made heat waves worse, according to the new research published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology. Using computer models to study three large U.S. cities, the authors estimated that a combined blackout and heat wave would expose at least two-thirds of residents in those cities to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.”

A Major 2016 Report On U.S. Power Grids Deserves Attention

“The Grid: The Fraying Wires Between Americans and Our Energy Future,” by Gretchen Bakke, Ph.D. is highly recommended reading. It’s an eye-opening examination of how the system works, and the various challenges that we face. Consider this paragraph from Page 3 of the introduction. Add 6 years to the 25 year ages quoted below, since 2016 was six years ago:

”More than 70 percent of the grid’s transmission lines and transformers are twenty-five years old; add nine years to that and you have the average age of an American power plant. According to the industry expert Peter Asmus, we rely on twice as many power plants as we actually need because of “the massive inefficiencies built into this system.” As a result, significant power outages are climbing year by year, from 15 in 2001 to 78 in 2007 to 307 in 2011.”

One fascinating takeaway from the report is that our power grids were not designed to efficiently transport modern clean energy, such as wind and solar. Rapidly emerging battery storage holds the promise of filling that gap. Check out this webpage from the investment banking firm, RBC Capital Markets. One of the biggest barriers is surmounting the thorny required regulatory processes.

Don’t Celebrate the New Federal Energy Benefits Too Soon

President Biden’s success on the climate and energy bill brings Texans some hope for ratepayer relief. However, Austin Energy may spoil the party, as we try to celebrate the newly-promised benefits. They have filed for a base rate increase. One local newspaper quoted them as stating, “Our rate design is not as efficient as the customers.” (See 6th paragraph). The new rate design would discourage conservation for both small and big users of electricity. And the utility told the Fitch bond rating service that “additional rate increases will be necessary” to improve cash flows. (“See Analytical Conclusion,” 2nd paragraph).

The current rate proposal also calls for weakening the methodology used to calculate the Value of Solar buyback credits for residential solar customers. Public Citizen has published their objections. (See third paragraph from the bottom). And, buried deep within the Appendices of Austin Energy’s rate filing brief, comes the threat of cutbacks to the Value of Solar credits for businesses. (See Appendix E. Sec. 2.1.1., Pg. 408). It says, “Some staff expressed concern over Austin Energy’s Value of Solar (VOS) pricing scheme, stating the current VOS structure is unsustainable, if commercial customers continue to adopt on-site solar and reduce their peak demand charges.” This disturbing signal runs counter to the City’s adopted climate change goals.

After a Summer From Hell, Bid the Rate Increase a Fond Farewell!

A good solution for Austin can be found in my recent blog piece. It makes a reasonable case that the City Council should cancel the rate increase, because Austin Energy will gain windfall summer revenues, their highest in history, thanks to the heatwave. San Antonio CPS is considering using their $75 million In surplus revenues to issue billing credits to customers.

When Two Worlds Collide – What Will Happen?

News reports about power grid problems, heatwaves and utility rate increases have led to one predictable result. American entrepreneurship has stepped up to the plate. This summer, we have seen a wave of sales promotions for solar panels and batteries. Then…BOOM…Congress passed a historic energy bill that promises $1,800 in annual energy savings for eligible families. This news article offers a clear breakdown of the climate bill’s benefits.

But, hanging over all of this like a dark shroud, is that looming question – How will the utilities cope with the big revenue losses that will accompany the promises of customer financial relief and a greener planet? With advancing technology, eventually hundreds, and then thousands of customers might be able to generate more electricity than they need. Or at least, a significant  percentage of what they need. At that point, the size and role of centralized utilities will change forever. Maybe utilities should be allowed to enter some non-traditional markets, not directly related to utilities.

The Future Is Coming Faster Than You Think

I will close with a parting thought for you regular folks, reading this in your living rooms. Picture yourself relaxing in an easy chair, with a cold beer on a blazing hot summer afternoon. You have solar panels on your roof, and a backup storage battery. You flip on the TV and see a special announcement. Your city is going into rolling blackouts within 24 hours.

Well, what if you could reach for your phone? Suppose somebody invented an app, just for this occasion? The app lets you select which rooms in your home to give priority for backup power, when the blackouts come. Are you thinking that this is somebody’s visionary dream for 10 years into the future?

Well, it’s not. There are several options available for you to do it right now. Not everyone will be able to afford these options right away. But check out this sample ad, and this one, along with another one for a phone app. Then, go back to that cold beer that I distracted you from. And don’t forget to pay your electric bill!

Blog Writer’s Note: I am a retired accountant and longtime Austin affordability advocate. As a former member of the City’s Electric Utility Commission, I have been involved with electric rate cases for the past 39 years.

Musical Accompaniment for This Blog Piece:

1. “Blackout” – Aviva
2. “Heat Wave” – Martha & The Vandellas
3. “Windfall” – Rick Nelson
4. “The Battery Song” – Mark Cummings
5. “I Just Want To Celebrate” – Rare Earth
6. “I Don’t Want To Spoil The Party” – The Beatles
7. “Storms Never Last” – Waylon Jennings
8. “Wichita Lineman” – Glen Campbell
9. “When Two Worlds Collide” – Jim Reeves
10. “The Night The Lights Went Out In Georgia” – Vicki Lawrence