Category Archives: General Affordability Updates

In 1983, Austin Was Scared About Its Future

By Bill Oakey – May 2, 2021

Today, as we emerge from the pandemic, Austinites look to the future with both hopes and fears. We hope that our fun times will soon return – live music, outdoor festivals, meeting friends at favorite restaurants, and enjoying our city’s special quality of life. Our fears go well beyond what the pandemic did to the economy and our iconic local businesses.

People are scared that their neighborhoods will be transformed into super-dense vertical villages, where you have to look up to see the sky. We worry that the over-hyped promise of a sleek mass transit system will be bogged down with huge cost overruns, and a downturn tunnel system that nosedives tens of millions into debt, before going bust. And we are scared that our tax appraisals will soar to San Francisco levels, while retired folks and middle income workers struggle to get by. We actually wonder whether City leaders are serving us at all, or just the people they are recruiting to replace us. We even face the twisted notion that trying to preserve our neighborhoods is somehow divisive and racist.

Now, let’s turn the clock back 38 years, and read what the New York Times wrote about our fears back in 1983:

BOOMING AUSTIN FEARS IT WILL LOSE ITS CHARMS

By Robert Reinhold, The New York Times – October 8, 1983

This appealing college town set in the lovely Texas hill country is rapidly becoming a major city with a high-technology economy, and many an Austinite is wondering if that will spoil a good thing.

As a growing number of computer, aerospace and other high-technology companies like Motorola, I.B.M. and Lockheed discover Austin’s charms, many here are asking whether the city will become ”another Houston.” That grim catchword symbolizes for Austinites the worst of Texas’s unbridled urban development: clogged freeways, sprawl, pollution and garish commercial strips.

Widely regarded as the most ”livable” of Texas cities, Austin long got along on just two economic legs: the University of Texas and the state government, a mix that made it a politically liberal and socially tolerant pocket in a conservative state. Now it is becoming a formidable industrial center, too.

Last May, Austin was selected over 57 other places as the site for the Microelectronics and Computer Technology Corporation, or M.C.C., a joint research venture of 11 major American computer makers to compete with the Japanese in building the next generation of information technology.

The Chamber of Commerce predicted that the ”multiplier” effect of M.C.C. could turn Austin into the country’s foremost high-technology center. It is a vision that has not been greeted with uniform enthusiasm by Austinites, many of whom remain uneasy about its consequences. But few believe growth can be halted.

”They’ve gotten away from the notion it is possible to stop growth, so now the question is how to manage it,” said Michael Levy, publisher of Texas Monthly magazine, headquartered here. ”What motivates people is fear of becoming another Houston. Every other household has a growth-management expert in it.”

Robert Lane, president of the InterFirst Bank, the largest here, said the city’s ”paranoia” about growth had led it to neglect roads and services. He believes the city must devise a long- range ”road map” to see beyond the weekly battles over zoning and development that consume the City Council.

”Austin really has the last good chance to manage its growth to maintain the quality of life we have,” he said.

Whether Austin can rein in the powerful economic and social forces at work is problematical. For better or worse, there are already signs that it has outgrown its small-town charms. On Congress Street downtown, a half dozen major office buildings are going up, including One American Center, a 32-story complex that has stirred outrage among many because it will block the view of the State Capitol from many neighborhoods. On the outskirts, commercial strips along Highway 183 and Ben White Boulevard are as garish and congested as anywhere.

Barton Springs, a spring-fed swimming hole longer than two football fields that many Austinites consider the town’s greatest natural treasure, is often closed because of bacterial pollution after heavy rains. The closures started after development began in its watershed.

Meanwhile, despite a city ”master plan” that discourages it, developers are inexorably carving up the limestone hills to the west of town to accommodate growing demands for housing there, raising fears about pollution of the Edwards aquifer below ground that supplies the city’s waters.

For years the city tried to limit its growth by denying water and sewer services to developers and by refusing to annex surrounding land; the voters repeatedly turned down bond issues. But this approach backfired because developers got water from the Lower Colorado River Authority, meaning development was occurring anyway and Austin was losing control of it.

As a consequence, the no-growth battle has been given up. Roger Duncan, the strongest environmental voice on the City Council, said: ”We’ve lost that battle. We have not been successful in controlling development in environmentally sensitive areas by utility controls. Now we are trying other things.”

He said he was now in favor of extending utility services to developers in exchange for stiffer landscaping, environmental and zoning standards.

By the same token, the pro-growth forces have begun to compromise politically with the environmental forces. The newly elected Mayor, Ron Mullen, an insurance broker, was a voice of business for years as a Council member. He has since changed his views, he said, and now believes development should proceed in ways that do not damage the aquifer and Austin’s natural beauty.

”I am much more concerned than I was about keeping that quality of life as good or better than it is,” he said, praising his erstwhile environmental foes as ”good consciences for the community.”

An example of the city’s new approach to ”managed” growth is Gary L. Bradley’s plans to develop the old Circle C Ranch, 3,600 acres of cedars and live oaks southwest of the city that is in the aquifer area and outside Austin’s ”preferred” growth corridor. Mr. Bradley, a 34-year-old West Texas native who has been in Austin since 1968, is negotiating with the city to provide him water and sewer lines by approving a municipal utility district with authority to issue bonds for his project, which would ultimately have 7,000 homes and apartments.

In exchange, Mr. Bradley has offered to build special retention dams to reduce runoff pollution and to limit paving and density.

”The city does not have to extend utilities to me,” he said. ”But they want to because they do not want me to buy water from the river authority.” Moreover, he said, he is cognizant of what he affectionately calls the ”granola army,” environmentalists who ”can beat you without money.”

”We’ve got a town with a conscience,” he said. ”We will not have another Houston. We have too many safeguards.”

Others are less hoepful. ”I don’t see any way of avoiding the fate that awaits us,” said Kenneth Manning, a 38-year-old lawyer and environmental leader who used to work for Mr. Bradley. He said the city was unable to take a strong hand in channeling development because ”it is extremely difficult to get the City Council to tell a developer ‘no’ once in a while.” All six Council members and the new Mayor ran with contributions from developers in April’s elections. The Best of All Worlds

Austin in a way has the best of all worlds: the fine restaurants, theaters and good bookstores of urban life, yet a small-city layout with lots of parks that lets you get home from work in 15 minutes. Many of its residents are Texans who came to study at the university and stayed, many of them professionals who have sacrificed more lucrative careers elsewhere. Many artists, writers, poets and artisans have also gravitated here.

It is just these things that have brought high-technology businesses seeking refuge from the high costs and congestion in California’s high-technology area and wanting an agreeable setting to help recruit staff. Austin’s population swelled from 254,000 in 1970 to 345,000 in 1980. The chamber estimates its has since grown to more than 367,000, and some estimates say the metropolitan area will exceed a million by the year 2000. Over the last decade, the number of passengers using the municipal airport has grown from 600,000 to more than 2 million yearly. The growth is accelerating. Since 1979 2.6 million square feet of office space has been built; 2.3 million more is now under construction.

Frank W. McBee, a native Austinite who heads the pioneer technology firm here, Tracor Inc., welcomes all this. ”If I want to come into Austin I could put my plant in Elgin, Buda or Georgetown and not pay the city any taxes,” he said, referring to nearby towns. ”The city needs to embrace growth, manage it and benefit from it.”

Adm. Bobby Ray Inman, U.S.N., retired, head of the new M.C.C. venture who is a former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence, agreed, saying, ”I think the fears are greatly overstated.”

In 1979 the City Council adopted a master plan to encourge growth along a north-south axis on the theory that new development would be most efficient where there are aleady utilities and transportation lines. But people prefer to live on the hills to the west, and nothing has been able to stop them.

The Council is devising new, more stringent zoning and building codes, and pressure is mounting for strict new rules to limit density in the ecologically fragile Lake Austin watershed to the west. Many, too, are urging the city to annex aggresively lest nearby towns hem it in, even though annexation means that the city must supply services. Over the next few months voters will be asked to approve more than $1 billion in bonds for water, sewer and electric service.

The watchword is low density, but that means high cost. Austin’s population is about 20 percent Mexican- American and 10 percent black, and Councilman John Trevino, son of a Mexican laborer, has his doubts about managed growth.

”Low density development eliminates most minorities,” Mr. Trevino said. ”Are we building an elitist community? Yes, we want to enjoy the environment. But none of my folks will be able to move in.”

How Austin Can Apply COVID Rescue Funds To Tax Relief

By Bill Oakey – April 27, 2021

Winning a battle to help the taxpayers is not an easy task. It’s like climbing up a hill backwards during a snowstorm in the dark. But it can be done, and this time it really must be done!

Get Ready To Go Down Into The Weeds!

This is what I have learned so far in researching the Federal American Rescue Plan Act. I am sharing this information with the Austin City Council:

1. Drill down on the American Rescue Plan details. Here is a good summary.

Take note of Item 2. on Page 17, under “Allandale Use of Funds”:

2. for the provision of government services to the extent of the reduction in revenue (i.e. online, property or income tax) due to the public health emergency.

This provision nails it. Austin has lost sales tax, property tax and various fee revenues since the pandemic began. These revenue losses can be covered with American Rescue Plan (ARP) funds. Some or all of the City’s projected budget shortfall can be covered with these funds. Here’s how to determine the exact amount:

This information is from the bottom of Page 2, in this Texas Municipal League document.

Eligible uses of ARP funds include:

– Responding to the public health emergency with respect to Covid-19 or its negative economic impacts, including assistance to households, small businesses, and nonprofits, or aid to impacted industries such as tourism, travel, and hospitality.

– Responding to workers performing essential work during the pandemic by providing premium pay to eligible workers performing services inside recipients’ territories, or to eligible employers that have eligible workers who perform essential work.

– Providing government services to the extent of the reduction in revenue of such recipient due to the pandemic relative to revenues collected in the most recent full fiscal year of the recipient prior to the pandemic.

– Necessary investment in water, sewer, or broadband infrastructure.

The third bullet applies to our City Budget. Our most recent full fiscal year prior to the pandemic was FY 2019. It appears that pandemic-related revenue losses in the FY 2020 Budget are covered by the Rescue Plan funds, to the extent that the added revenues will bring the total up to the FY 2019 level, for each type of revenue. This provision does not make clear whether any FY 2021 revenue losses can be replenished with Rescue Plan funds. Please address this question to the Texas Municipal League or the U.S. Treasury. If I find out, I will let you know. You have until December 31, 2024 to spend the Rescue Plan funds. So, you could easily apply them to next year’s Budget, and provide relief on taxes and fees.

2. The Rescue Plan funds can be used for various health initiatives and social services. Many of these programs are funded annually in the City Budget. It seems to me that you should be able to apply the Rescue Plan funds directly to those eligible services, in lieu of property taxes. That would be in addition to the revenue shortfalls that you are allowed to cover.

Here’s the Bottom Line

You folks on the City Council have a unique opportunity to bring tax relief to homeowners and small businesses during this stressful period of the pandemic. This should be an easy win-win for everyone concerned. Think about these words from the recent KXAN News story:

Patrick Brown, a former Travis County chief appraiser, said with people already strained, an increase in the property tax calculation cap may put too much of a tax burden on Austinites. 

“It’s definitely going to affect all the commercial properties and land, and rental properties and the landlords, particularly ones that have acquired a mortgage loan in the last two or three years,” Brown said. 

That, in turn, he said will affect rental rates. 

“And that could push a number of residents out into the periphery and make Austin even less affordable than it is already,” he said.

Stay Tuned and We Shall See What Happens…

The next step is to ask the Travis County Commissioners to use part of their $247.1 million in Rescue Plan Funds for property tax relief. This news article makes no mention of their planning to do any such thing.

Welcome To Austin’s Newest Mass Transit Bureaucracy

By Bill Oakey, April 20, 2021

First of all, the pandemic has upended the old historic model of mass transit. But, does the City Council and Capital Metro recognize that? Have they modified the plans for Project Connect the way other major cities are doing? Ridership has decreased dramatically, peak times have shifted and routes have been altered. See these two extraordinary articles:

2. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Austin taxpayers face a bleak future of spiraling property tax increases for a new bureaucratic morass that may not even succeed in their mission. Unless we have strong oversight and rigid accountability standards, the high cost will displace many thousands of longtime Austin residents.

1. The City of Austin’s property tax increase this year for the Project Connect plan  is 8.75 cents per $100 valuation. That is almost as high as the 11 cent tax for Central Health, and even closer to Austin Community College’s 10.6 cent tax!

2. The City and Capital Metro created a whole new bureaucracy for implementing Project Connect’s $7.1 billion plan. It is called the Austin Transit Partnership. I have tried several online searches for “Austin Transit Partnership budget,” and cannot find one that is published anywhere. So, who can tell us how this year’s 23%, 8.75 cent City property tax increase, that is almost as high as ACC and Central Heath is being spent?

3. The $7.1 billion transit plan was sold to the voters as an “initial investment.” The final cost for a citywide plan would easily be 3 to 4 times that amount in local funding.  In 2016, Seattle voters approved a $54 billion plan to expand their existing rail system. By 2019 it was already over budget!

4. I am proposing to the City Council an annual public review process for the Austin Transit Partnership budget. It would closely follow the City’s budget process, with a proposed budget released a few months ahead of final adoption. This would be followed by 2 or 3 public hearings, with City Council members present. The final budget would have to be approved by our elected City Council. I am also asking for this year’s budget for our 23% property tax increase (8.75 cents) to be published and posted online.

5. The new Austin Transportation Partnership is busy recruiting coordinators, facilitators, liaisons and all manner of other bureaucrats to begin the process of studying and evaluating the approach to formulating the implementation of Project Connect’s $7.1 billion plan (!) Check out this colorfully worded job posting for “Manager, Board Relations:” The very first sentence has a typo with repeated words:
Manager, Board Relations
“The Manager Board Relations reports directly to the reports directly to the General Counsel and Chief Administrative Officer.“

Here is one of my favorite bullet points in the job posting:

“Develop and maintain viable systems and procedures to implement board policy providing knowledgeable input to the Board in their decision-making process.”

6. There are serious questions as to whether the proposed downtown tunnel is even feasible. The fault that runs north and south through underground Austin poses major engineering challenges. And our downtown streets were elevated several feet in the late 1800’s, because of severe flooding. In the 1980’s, an amateur explorer crawled through a narrow tunnel and discovered what remains of the old downtown streets. He showed a film to the City Council. This evidence of a previous downtown, and why it was buried still lies beneath us today, shrouded in mystery.

Musical Accompaniment For This Blog Piece:

1. “Ambrose (Part 5)” – Linda Laurie, 1958
2. “To Tell the Truth TV Show” – featuring Linda Laurie

San Francisco Is Worried That Austin Is Becoming Like San Francisco!

By Bill Oakey – April 19, 2021

My cousin pointed me to a Bloomberg Business article that clearly shows how out of whack things are getting here. People from the Silicon Valley have been coming here for years because  they liked Austin. That’s the Austin that had a thriving live music scene, a funky “keep it weird” vibe and lots of other things that the locals created. For many of us, it’s been fun meeting the new people at various festivals and other events.

But, what happens when the very factors that drove people out of California start happening right here? Well, we don’t have to wait long to find out. I will provide a link to the “San Francisco Is Worried” story. But first, here are a few things they need to think about before and after they get here. Maybe one of their high tech think tanks could discuss these, and then sit down with the folks on our City Council. Here’s what they need to know…

To The Good People Of San Francisco and the Silicon Valley:

Our transportation system will get much worse before it gets better!

Last year, Austin voters were promised a dazzling crosstown rail system, with a downtown tunnel, and two lines crossing Lady Bird Lake. One of those will extend to the airport. The grand plan, which was easily approved by voters, is riddled with problems. For starters, the “initial investment” of $7.1 billion won’t go very far. In 2016, Seattle approved a $54 billion expansion of their existing rail system, and it is already over budget. Our new system, even if it could be built on a wing and a prayer, will leave several of Austin’s busiest roadways with only one car lane in each direction.

I requested detailed feasibility and engineering studies, prior to the bond election. Why were they not provided to me? Because they don’t exist. Studies were set to begin many months after voters bought the plan and started paying taxes for it. The plans call for two crossings over the lake, but doesn’t specify where, how, or even whether enough land is available or could be acquired near either crossing. Nobody has been able to figure that one out yet.

The downtown tunnel is a dead-on-arrival pipe dream. A fault runs under part of downtown, causing occasional leaks into basements in buildings. There are numerous utility fixtures under the downtown streets. The rock in the ground is so hard that utility contractors have a difficult time even drilling a small space for a maintenance vehicle to squeeze through. Project Connect’s fairy tale image of people sipping cocktails across from an underground rail station, while grooving to a live band are positively hilarious!

Wait Till Austinites See Their Property Tax Bills Later This Year!

The $7.1 billion “initial investment” by taxpayers is only a drop in the bucket for the expected final cost. Any modern citywide rail and expanded bus system would easily cost 3 to 4 times that much in local funding. This year’s 8.75 cent property tax for the sure-to-fail-rail is almost as high as the 11 cent annual tax for our entire Central Health System. And it’s even closer to our 10.6 cent tax for Austin Community College. In my next blog piece, I will introduce you to the boondoggle bureaucracy that will “enhance, engage and facilitate” the implementation of the big fairy tale plan.

Perhaps I’ve Said Enough for One Tough Swallow!

I wouldn’t want to spoil anyone’s lovely welcome from San Francisco, before they even get their moving boxes off the truck. So, I won’t bemoan the fact that I-35 will be torn apart for 10 or 15 years with new construction, at the very same time that rail construction rips up the streets across the city. And I’ll say no more about the hapless diggers who will try to bore their way under our downtown streets. Oh, and I almost forgot to say this to our kind and gentle friends from San Francisco…Welcome to Austin!

And Now For That Entertaining Story…Click the Headline:

Silicon Valley Is Flooding Into a Reluctant Austin

Musical Accompaniment for This Blog Piece:

1. “San Francisco “ – Scott McKenzi
2. “San Franciscan Nights” – Eric Burdon & The Animals
3. “I Left My Heart In San Francisco” – Tony Bennett
4. “Fairytale” – The Pointer Sisters

KXAN Forecasts Historic Wave Of Property Tax Protests

By Bill Oakey – April 16, 2021

Just as Austinites began enjoying the marvelous joys of spring weather, amid hopeful signs of finally escaping the pandemic, a thunderous roar could be heard reverberating across the city. On Thursday afternoon, the initial sounds were much quieter – little mouse clicks and computer keystrokes. And the nearly silent taps and swipes across phones and tablets. Then came the sweeping surge of audible gasps, quickly followed by various combinations of howls, shrieks and screams. Many people exclaimed out loud, “How could this even be possible!!??” The Travis Central Appraisal District’s website went live with this year’s stunning property tax appraisals.

On the evening local news, KXAN became the first to report on the story. Click here for the video, or read about it below:

Tax Experts Anticipate More Home Appraisal Protests Than Ever

By Kevin Clark, April 15, 2021

AUSTIN (KXAN) — As the local housing market changes dramatically, hundreds of thousands in Travis County are getting their home appraisals from the Travis Central Appraisal District for this year. The numbers are important because they’re used to calculate property taxes. But tax experts tell KXAN they expect more homeowners than ever to fight back.Last year, TCAD says there were 127,000 protests. This year, even more are expected.

“We’ve already had folks calling us and asking us to help them, anticipating that ‘hard hit’ in those values,” said Debra Bawcom, CEO of Texas ProTax, which helps represent homeowners who want to protest the values set by the appraisal district. (Link provided by this blog).

As it does around this time every year, TCAD has begun sending out appraisal notices. But as housing demand continues to skyrocket, the appraisal district is reporting higher median home values. In 2020, Travis County’s median home value was $354,622. This year, TCAD says it has reached $413,403. The only year this number didn’t go up from the previous year was last year — that’s when the appraisal district froze appraisals because of a data dispute.

“I think it’s going to really shock the property owner how much that value is going to increase because the appraisal district is going to have to play catch up now for two years,” Bawcom said.

Bill Oakey is just one homeowner feeling the effect. He owns one-third of a triplex in West Austin. According to the appraisal notice Oakey received, its value went up 55% from last year.“The first thing that occurred to me was that the alarm was going to go off, I’m going to wake up and tell everyone about the bad dream I just had,” he told us.

Property owners have until May 17 to protest their appraisals. From there, homeowners can try and reach a settlement with TCAD informally or have a formal hearing in front of the Appraisal Review Board. More details on the process and timelines can be found here. Texas law caps increases of tax-assessed value to 10% per year for those with homestead exemptions. Anything above that is ripe for a protest, which is exactly what Oakey plans.

“I’m going to try to become an example of how you can win,” he said.

If You Thought It Couldn’t Get Any Crazier, Think Again!

By Bill Oakey – March 28, 2021

The U.S. Congress took up their investigation of the Texas power blackout last week. And the bumbling, bungling shenanigans of Texas officialdom went on full display. When you read the editorial below, ask yourself this question – If you owned a large Texas business, would you hire any of the numbskulls from ERCOT, or the political hacks that interact with or pretend to oversee them? The gang that couldn’t shoot straight was called upon the carpet in Washington. Here’s what happened…

Editorial – The Houston Chronicle

By the Editorial Board, March 28, 2021

Texas leaders, get tough on grid security

Human mistakes shut off the electricity. Now the humans in charge must do their jobs.

It wasn’t the wind turbines. It wasn’t natural gas. It wasn’t coal that was to blame in the blackout that killed 111 people across Texas.

The truth is all those power sources went offline at some point during last month’s winter storm, not because they were “renewable” or “base load” or “liberal” or “conservative” fuels but because generators and pipeline owners chose not to weatherize their equipment for a predictable winter storm. Some gas operators chose not to fill out a simple two-page form to exempt their operations from losing power during rolling blackouts and other shortages.

They chose not to do these things because nobody in Texas government required them to.

Let’s stop wasting time, as U.S. House members did in a hearing last week, bickering over which political party’s preferred natural resource saved the day and which caused death and destruction.

The culprit was not vegetable or mineral. It was human.

It was the people in Texas government who had the duty to secure Texas’ power grid and refused. The people who had the power to protect millions of Texans from an accident waiting to happen and opted to just let it happen. The people who chose not to require that companies delivering life-sustaining energy do so responsibly, opting instead to make basic emergency planning optional.

It is elected officials, political appointees, and well-compensated executives who, more than a month after the catastrophic failure of Texas’ power grid, refuse to take true responsibility or move with urgency to fix the problems.

The shameful show of finger-pointing and shallow concern hit the national stage Wednesday as several Texas officials testified before Congress on the impact and causes of February’s storm.

One moment served as a glaring allegory of Texas deflection: Railroad Commission Chairman Christi Craddick was asked whether she, as the state’s top oil and gas regulator, would start requiring operators to fill out a short form that keeps their power from being shut off during outages.

The question by U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey should have been a no-brainer. Craddick herself had testified that in the middle of the blackouts, crews returning to gas fields found they couldn’t restart production because they’d lost power for their equipment.

“Frozen roadways prevented crews from going out, but the No. 1 problem was a lack of power at the production sites,” she said.

That problem, as Houston Chronicle reporters Jay Root, Eric Dexheimer and Jeremy Blackman reported this month, was the result of gas production plant owners not filling out simple paperwork to become designated as “critical facilities,” making them exempt as hospitals are from having their power cut so they can keep supplying fuel to power plants.

Even so, Craddick wouldn’t commit to requiring the form, only saying that her agency had sent letters to all operators “suggesting” that they file it. She also insisted that she hadn’t “realized this form existed” before the winter storm and that power grid operator ERCOT should have done a better job getting the word out about the exemptions. Never mind that her name was on the letterhead of a 2013 Railroad Commission memo explaining the exemptions and urging natural gas facilities to apply.

“But do you don’t think it should be required?” Veasey pushed back.

Craddick continued to dodge the question, pivoting again to her favorite punching bag. She blamed ERCOT for not prioritizing oil fields for such exemptions, and tried to claim they only were available to processing plants anyway. While the 2013 letter uses the term “facilities,” it also states clearly that “high volume gas wells are examples of such facilities.”

Letting industry police itself is a basic tenant in Texas’ laissez-faire approach to oversight. But while expense may be behind Craddick’s previous refusal to require winterization of natural gas wellheads, it’s unclear what kind of burden she thinks filling out a free form that takes about two minutes to complete would impose on companies.

Veasey wasn’t having Craddick’s excuses.

“Republicans just want this problem to go away,” he said. “They don’t want to deal with this, they don’t want to require anybody to do anything, which means we’re going to be sitting in the cold again and that is the problem. They are running out the clock.”

Coming from a Democrat, that may sound like partisan rhetoric — except for the fact that the complacency and political cowardice he describes has all happened before. It set the stage for February’s disaster. And it will lead to another tragedy unless lawmakers resolve to finally act this session.

Just as Gov. Greg Abbott and lawmakers knew Texas’ grid was vulnerable in winter without proper weatherization, Texas oil and gas regulators knew that gas suppliers had their power cut during the state’s last major freeze in 2011. A federal after-incident report had warned that communication gaps between gas and electric companies should be fixed to prevent it from happening again.

A state report in 2012 said the same thing, with regulators at the Texas Public Utility Commission and Railroad Commission concluding that “cascading” grid failures could happen if companies that provide fuel for power generation lost power themselves. That’s exactly what happened in February.

The former PUC regulator who oversaw that 2012 report, Jennifer Hubbs, told Chronicle reporters she was shocked to realize during the storm that her simple recommendations hadn’t been followed.

“I’m on Twitter and I see a photo of downtown Houston lit up like a freakin’ Christmas tree and all the houses around it dark. It hit me like a physical blow,” she told the Chronicle. “You know, we might have avoided rotating outages entirely if we had just approached it with some sense.”

Sense. It’s something as scarce in Austin these days as toilet-flushing water during last month’s storm.

It is not government overreach or far-left sabotage to require energy companies to engage in basic emergency planning. It’s the least a government can do to protect its residents from a harsh winter storm or even an attack on our power grid from a foreign adversary such as Russia or China.

Abbott needs to lean on lawmakers to require safeguards, lawmakers need to pass them, and elected leaders such as Craddick need to stop leaving Texans’ health and safety to chance and voluntary compliance.

Why should Texans put up with leaders whose loose regulations leave us vulnerable to everything from random chemical explosions to prolonged blackouts that put our homes, our businesses and our loved ones in harm’s way?

Leaders, do your jobs, not industry’s bidding. Texans don’t deserve to live this way — or die this way, either.

———————————————————————————–
My Recommendation: The Legislature should make sure that the form is easily accessible. Right now, once an entity submits it, they are permanently registered. If their status changes, or if they are new to the system, they need to submit an updated form. I recommend that the Legislature set an annual fall deadline to submit the form. Failure to do so should be greeted with a stiff fine. Here’s what’s so crazy – It’s in a company’s best interest to submit the form. They’ll sell more gas during the power outage (!) If the right hand is unable to help the left hand, perhaps either Alexa or Siri could help with a friendly reminder..

Get Your Wooden Nickels Ready – Here Comes the Jukebox!

1. “All Right, I’ll Sign the Papers” – Mel Tillis
2. “I’ve Always Been Crazy” – Waylon Jennings
3. “Still Crazy After All These Years” – Paul Simon
4. “No Place But Texas” – Willie Nelson
5. “Texas In My Rear View Mirror” – Mac Davis

Dallas Morning News Blows The Lid Off ERCOT’s Sordid History!

By Bill Oakey – March 26, 2021

Strap yourselves in for a wild ride, folks! If you think you’re heard everything…Nope, not even close. No wonder this guy won a top journalism award. What in the ding-dong-dang are the politicians going to do now!??

Dallas Morning News Watchdog Column – By Dave Lieber, March 26, 2021

In 20 years, ERCOT has been a misbehaving, secretive, arrogant, even criminal grid operator

Looking at the history of the state’s all-powerful electricity overseer, The Watchdog finds a pattern of failure.

ERCOT, the operator of the Texas electric grid, has been a problem child since the state’s electricity market was deregulated at the turn of the century.

When it comes to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, incompetence and lack of accountability and oversight is nothing new.

If you know your history, you shouldn’t be surprised about what happened in last month’s cold-weather catastrophe.

The power to bring us electricity rests in the hands of a nonprofit, mostly invisible group whose leaders claimed we were a mere 4 minutes and 37 seconds from a massive blackout that could have shut the grid down for months.

Texans wonder why it would take months. It takes that long for replacement transmission towers to be built shipped, placed and powered up.

With the help of The Dallas Morning News Archives and a history book by R.A. “Jake” Dyer of the Texas Coalition for Affordable Power, let me show you year by year how bad it has been.

It might make you wonder why we don’t throw up the white flag and join the interconnected national grid.

2001: Tasked with creating a pilot program to handle the new deregulated system that began that year, ERCOT blows it by going over-budget and failing to meet goals. Customers who wish to switch electricity companies are blocked. Bills generated by ERCOT are wildly inaccurate. Its budget, built on fees paid by electricity customers, is hatched in secret.

That year, the first price spike to the maximum-allowed cap hits customers, but ERCOT says it won’t happen again. Yet it happens again and again in the next few days.

2002: About a quarter-million customers do not receive bills, sometimes for months. An expensive marketing campaign promoting the new deregulated system is delayed because ERCOT can’t handle the influx of consumers wanting to switch companies.

A peek at financial statements shows ERCOT’s average salary with benefits is $99,000. Employees receive a $10,000 travel allowance. Critics pounce on ERCOT’s sponsorship of a minor league hockey team as frivolous. After promising to cut back, ERCOT asks that its customer-paid fees get doubled.

2004: This is — aside from 2021 — ERCOT’s worst year. The Dallas Morning News reveals a massive procurement scandal at ERCOT that will lead to criminal convictions. Fake companies are created by several ERCOT managers, and millions of dollars are siphoned from ERCOT funds. Legislators blast ERCOT’s weak financial controls and complain about “perceived arrogance among top officials in the face of these problems,” Dyer writes.

2005: A grand jury indicts six ERCOT managers. They include the chief information officer, director of information technology, data warehouse manager, director of program development and physical security manager. The sixth, a former FBI agent, is responsible for corporate security. The men use the stolen money to buy boats, luxury homes and expensive cars.

“The maze of illicit business dealings going on within ERCOT over a year’s time is simply stunning,” the Texas attorney general says. “This is not about electricity. It’s about corruption at top levels of ERCOT.”

The AG at the time? Greg Abbott.

In response to the growing scandal, the Legislature gives all oversight of ERCOT to the Public Utility Commission.

2006: Running out of power on an April day, ERCOT launches, without public warning, rolling blackouts. Even the PUC, which supposedly oversees ERCOT, isn’t notified. Under fire, ERCOT’s chief executive resigns. On the criminal front, the indicted managers are convicted and some are ordered to pay fines, while others are sent to prison.

One state senator says: “There’s an ongoing, cavalier attitude over there [at ERCOT] that you are a standalone entity and not responsible to the people of the state.”

2009: Bills to rein in ERCOT are introduced at the Legislature, but they do not pass. ERCOT’s CEO resigns, the fourth such resignation since 2000.

2010: A consultant’s report finds ERCOT is hindered by “poor corporate governance, leadership and culture.” The consultant finds that ERCOT has too many employees and recommends that 166 get cut. ERCOT cuts 37. A state report finds poor financial oversight, questions ERCOT’s large debt (more than $300 million) and suggests removing industry representatives from the board.

2011: An icy cold snap hits during Super Bowl week, but ERCOT isn’t prepared, resulting in rolling blackouts. Similar cold weather problems occurred in 1983, 1989, 2003, 2006, 2008 and 2010. Meanwhile, during the summer, the state keeps setting records for hot-weather usage. A bill that gives the PUC even more oversight of ERCOT dies in the Legislature.

2015: New electricity demands break records. ERCOT lifts the regulatory cap to its current $9,000 per megawatt-hour. Originally, until 2011, the cap was $1,000 per megawatt-hour. ERCOT’s cap is the highest in the nation.

2018: ERCOT planners predict that generators will note the state has lower reserve margins of power and build new power plants to make profits and boost energy supplies. Because of this, they say, Texas will have a much stronger system by 2021. Oh, well.

2019: The $9,000 cap for wholesale electricity is hit twice, once in May and once in August. “Such high prices eventually trickle down into home rates,” Dyer writes.

Texas’ population of 29 million people is projected to grow by 2050 to 55 million. Can the current system handle the added power load? Why isn’t anyone talking seriously about joining the national grid?

The Watchdog took the “P” away from the (p)UC because the commission doesn’t care about the public. Watchdog Nation member David P. Bader of Dallas suggests, “Going forward, until some meaningful reforms are made, you should refer to ERCOT as E(r)COT since “reliability” doesn’t appear to be part of their purview.”

Done. Considering its sketchy past and dangerous present times, you have to wonder if E(r)COT can handle the future.

News researcher Alyssa Fernandez contributed to this report.

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Blog Special Feature – Songs From the ERCOT Jukebox

1. “Ain’t No Honky Tonks in Jail” – George Goss (Totally Hilarious)!
2. “Shame and Scandal” – Shawn Elliott
3. “Shame, Shame, Shame” – Cher & Tina Turner
4. “In the Jailhouse Now” – Johnny Cash
5. “Mama Tried” – Merle Haggard

ERCOT’s Pricing Structure Must Be Reformed – Here’s Why

By Bill Oakey – March 25, 2021

During the winter storm, we were all told why the price of electricity sold through ERCOT was increased to the maximum rate. We were told that it’s a demand-based system. The high prices were designed to incentivize energy producers to build more capacity and supply more power to the grid.

Well, Texas utilities did their part. They paid the outlandish price of $9,000 per megawatt-hour, which is 250 to 300 times the normal rate of $30 to $35 per megawatt-hour. These astronomical prices continued for 32 hours after the storm ended. The Washington Post reported that nearly $50 billion in electricity sales were generated during the week of the storm. To put that $50 billion figure in perspective, it’s over 3 times the entire annual budgets of Austin, San Antonio, Dallas and Houston, combined! Check the numbers and sources below for this fiscal year’s budgets:

Austin: $4.2 billion
San Antonio: $2.9 billion
Dallas: $3.8 billion
Houston: $5.1 billion
Grand Total: $16 billion, times 3 equals $48 billion

A wave of bankruptcies and lawsuits are unraveling by the day. Many Texas consumers will see higher electric bills, stretching far into the future, as pass-through power supply adjustment charges are recalculated several months from now. San Antonio’s electric utility is considering spreading these charges over an entire decade, to make the rate jolt less onerous. Close your eyes and contemplate what would happen if ERCOT sees no reforms, and we get another severe winter storm in the next year or two.

So, here is the one big question that begs to be answered:

How Many New Weatherized Power Plants, and How Much New Capacity Will Texans Get, After Paying All Those Tens Of Billions Of Dollars?

We have a right to expect a precise answer to that simple question from the likes of ERCOT, the Public Utility Commission, and the folks at the State Capitol who gave us an independent power grid with these pricing policies. Otherwise, how could they possibly justify keeping ERCOT’s current pricing model in place? Exelon Corp., which lost close to $1 billion, told the Washington Post that it may consider leaving Texas unless its market system is reformed.

So far, we haven’t heard a word from the folks who walked away with windfall profits about building us the new generating capacity that we were promised. And they are not required to do so under the weak Texas laws. As soon as this blog receives the list of power plants and their capacities, we will publish it here in detail.

If You Would Like to Wade Into the Weeds of the Data

Here is a bucketful from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. You won’t find anything close to ERCOT’s $9,000 per megawatt-hour peak prices.

Musical Accompaniment for This Blog Piece

1. “Such An Easy Question” – Elvis Presley
2. “A Lover’s Question” – Clyde McPhatter
3. “What a Price” – Fats Domino
4. “96 Tears” – ? and the Mysterians
5. “What Did I Promise Her Last Night?”– Mel Tillis
6. “Promises Promises” – Lynn Anderson
7. “When” – The Kalin Twins
8. “The Twelfth of Never” – Johnny Mathis

What You Haven’t Been Told About The ERCOT $16 Billion

By Bill Oakey – March 22, 2021

In just 32 hours, after the winter storm was over, ERCOT billed enough electricity charges to fund the entire annual budgets of Texas’ four biggest cities combined. Read on for further details…

We know that the Big Boys on Wall Street are thrilled with their massive windfall in ERCOT’s utility pricing overcharges. They and our governor would like everyone else to just butt out now, and leave well enough alone. The Chairman of the Public Utility Commission was caught on a recording, promising to protect the Wall Street profits. The Texas Tribune recently published an article entitled, “Experts Fear Reversing Electricity Charges Will Make Things Worse.”

Why? Because “That might have a chilling effect on companies wanting to come in and invest money in Texas.” Those same “experts” insist that consumers would not be affected if the overcharges were paid back. So, we pay more when the price goes up, but if it came down, with a huge price correction, we would get nothing. Huh?

In Austin, over a dozen people were hospitalized with frostbite. Eleven feet were amputated, and five people had both feet amputated. They will be disabled for the rest of their lives. 

How Much Is $16 Billion…Really?

1. Take a guess at how much this year’s entire city budgets for Austin, San Antonio, Dallas and Houston add up to. Here’s the simple math:

Austin: $4.2 billion
San Antonio: $2.9 billion
Dallas: $3.8 billion
Houston: $5.1 billion
Grand Total: $16 billion (Holy cow!)

2. If you laid a bunch of $10 bills end to end in a line, that line would have to wrap around the world 6 times to total up to $16 billion! Here’s the math:

The earth’s circumference at the equator is 24,901 miles
24,901 miles converts to 1,577,727,360 inches
1,577,727,360” divided by 6.12” (length of any U.S. bill) = 257,798,588

That’s roughly a quarter of a billion single dollar bills. Those would wrap around the world 4 times to reach $1 billion. So, it would take 4 times 16, which is 64 times around, to reach $16 billion with $1.00 bills. For $10 bills, it would be one-tenth of that, which is roughly 6 times.

3. Austin Energy’s annual budget is now $1 billion. So, at the current rate, a $16 billion windfall would keep the utility running for 16 years!

Just take a deep breath and try to swallow this – In just 32 hours, after the storm was over, ERCOT billed enough electricity charges to fund the entire annual budgets of Texas’ four biggest cities combined! If that doesn’t tell you that we need serious reform of our power grid pricing system, then nothing will.

Two interesting questions – How many fully weatherized new power plants could be built with $16 billion? And how much of that money, plus the profits earned during the storm actually be used for that purpose?

We’ve heard a lot about “winners and losers.”  So, who are the winners, and what are they going to do with all that money? We deserve a full accounting of what happened to the entire $16 billion, including the $12 billion or so that was supposedly “settled.”

For the Readers: A Simple Multiple Choice Question

The assertion that Texans should shrug off ERCOT’s $16 billion in overcharges, because it wouldn’t make any difference is:

A. Tommyrot
B. Poppycock
C. Balderdash
D. Bull-Malarkey
E. All of the above

If you answered “E,” then congratulations, you passed the exam. But don’t expect any kudos from ERCOT, the Public Utility Commission or the Governor’s office. They are all out to lunch!

Musical Accompaniment for This Blog Piece

1, “Money Makes the World Go Round” – Liza Minnelli
2. “Around the World” – Connie Francis
3. “Miss Otis Regrets” – Linda Ronstadt
4. “Money, Money, Money” – Abba
5. “For Your Sweet Love” – Rick Nelson